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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, reiterated his long-term forecast that Bitcoin will break through the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. He believes that despite facing short-term uncertainties related to tariffs left over from the Trump administration and the risk of economic recession, these factors actually strengthen his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick's analysis points out that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is approaching the $69,000 to $76,500 range seen after the November 6, 2024 election. He compared Bitcoin's 30-day implied annualized volatility (currently at 55%) with the US "Magnificent Seven" (big tech stocks) and found that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's decline since President Trump took office is in line with these seven tech stocks.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>He stated, "I would say that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's trading is indeed firmly within this group of seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin." This suggests that Bitcoin's recent weakness reflects the weakness of overall risk assets, rather than a problem specific to Bitcoin. Among them, Tesla has fallen the most, while Meta and Apple have performed relatively well, and the trends of other stocks are similar to Bitcoin.</p><h3>&nbsp;</h3><h3><strong>Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Rise Due to Economic Uncertainty</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick believes that there are two potential catalysts for market recovery: clarification of tariff issues (low probability) or accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (probability of a rate cut at the May meeting rising from 50% to 75%, higher probability). He warned that if Bitcoin falls below the support level of $76,500 (November 6 high), it could quickly drop to $69,000. However, Kendrick emphasized that his long-term forecast remains unshaken, and he believes that economic uncertainty increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which in turn strengthens his long-term expectation that Bitcoin will reach $200,000.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Rock Zhang, founder and CEO of Network3 (an AI Layer2 platform), added context regarding the macroeconomic environment. He pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates early, and it is associated with recession indicators such as rising unemployment or slowing consumer spending, it could trigger concerns about a stock market downturn. He believes that the Fed's actions will depend on whether the rate cut is seen as a proactive measure or a response to recession indicators, which will affect market dynamics, and this may benefit Bitcoin in the long run.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Therefore, despite increased short-term volatility, Standard Chartered maintains its optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, believing that it will overcome short-term risks and ultimately reach its target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>渣打预测比特币今年底将达20万美元。渣打银行数位资产研究全球主管Geoffrey Kendrick重申其长期预测：比特币将在2025年底突破20万美元大关。他认为，尽管短期内面临特朗普政府时期遗留的关税不确定性及经济衰退风险，这些因素反而强化了他对比特币的看涨预期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特币价格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大选后69,000美元至76,500美元的区间。他将比特币30天隐含年化波动率（目前为55%）与美国「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比较，发现经过波动率调整后，自特朗普总统就职以来，比特币的跌幅与这七大科技股相符。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他表示：「我会说，在经过波动率调整后，比特币的交易确实稳固地处于这七大科技股加上比特币的群组内。」 这暗示比特币的近期疲软反映的是整体风险资产的弱势，而非比特币自身的问题。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和苹果表现相对较佳，其他股票走势则与比特币相似。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>渣打预测比特币因经济不确定性而上升</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick认为，市场复苏的潜在催化剂有二：关税问题明朗化（可能性低）或美联储加速减息（5月份会议减息机率从50%上升至75%，可能性较高）。他警告，若比特币跌破76,500美元（11月6日高点）的支撑位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick强调，他的长期预测并未因此动摇，反而认为经济不确定性增加了美联储减息的机率，进而强化了他比特币将达20万美元的长期预期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Network3（一个AI Layer2平台）的创始人兼行政总裁Rock Zhang补充说明了宏观经济环境。他指出，如果美联储提前减息，且与失业率上升或消费者支出放缓等衰退指标相关联，则可能引发股市下跌的担忧。 他认为，美联储的行动将取决于减息被视为主动措施还是对衰退指标的反应，进而影响市场动态，而这可能从长远来看有利于比特币。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>因此，尽管短期波动加剧，渣打仍维持其对比特币的乐观预测，认为其将克服短期风险，最终在2025年底达到20万美元的目标价位。</p>

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</div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>渣打預測比特幣今年底將達20萬美元。渣打銀行數位資產研究全球主管<a href="https://cftime.io/experts-predict-bitcoin-price-could-drop-to-80k/">Geoffrey Kendrick</a>重申其長期預測：比特幣將在2025年底突破20萬美元大關。他認為，儘管短期內面臨特朗普政府時期遺留的關稅不確定性及經濟衰退風險，這些因素反而強化了他對比特幣的看漲預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick的分析指出，近期比特幣價格下跌，逼近2024年11月6日大選後69,000美元至76,500美元的區間。他將比特幣30天隱含年化波動率（目前為55%）與美國「Magnificent Seven」(七大科技股) 作比較，發現經過波動率調整後，自<a href="https://cftime.io/trumps-tariff-policy-hits-the-market/">特朗普</a>總統就職以來，比特幣的跌幅與這七大科技股相符。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>他表示：「我會說，在經過波動率調整後，比特幣的交易確實穩固地處於這七大科技股加上比特幣的群組內。」 這暗示比特幣的近期疲軟反映的是整體風險資產的弱勢，而非比特幣自身的問題。其中，特斯拉跌幅最大，Meta和蘋果表現相對較佳，其他股票走勢則與比特幣相似。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><h3><strong>渣打預測比特幣因經濟不確定性而上升</strong></h3><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Kendrick認為，市場復甦的潛在催化劑有二：關稅問題明朗化（可能性低）或美聯儲加速減息（5月份會議減息機率從50%上升至75%，可能性較高）。他警告，若比特幣跌破76,500美元（11月6日高點）的支撐位，可能迅速跌至69,000美元。但Kendrick強調，他的長期預測並未因此動搖，反而認為經濟不確定性增加了美聯儲減息的機率，進而強化了他比特幣將達20萬美元的長期預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Network3（一個AI Layer2平台）的創始人兼行政總裁Rock Zhang補充說明了宏觀經濟環境。他指出，如果美聯儲提前減息，且與失業率上升或消費者支出放緩等衰退指標相關聯，則可能引發股市下跌的擔憂。 他認為，美聯儲的行動將取決於減息被視為主動措施還是對衰退指標的反應，進而影響市場動態，而這可能從長遠來看有利於比特幣。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>因此，儘管短期波動加劇，渣打仍維持其對比特幣的樂觀預測，認為其將克服短期風險，最終在2025年底達到20萬美元的目標價位。</p>

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