Analysis: US presidential election will impact Bitcoin price
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia predict a significant impact of the upcoming US Presidential election on Bitcoin's price. Their report suggests a potential surge to $80,000-$90,000 if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins, exceeding the previous all-time high of $74,000. Conversely, a victory for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could see Bitcoin drop to the $40,000 range.
This prediction aligns with the recent rise in Trump's support on the prediction platform Polymarket. While acknowledging potential bias in Polymarket due to Trump's pro-crypto stance, Bernstein analysts cite the platform's high liquidity as a reliable indicator. Currently, Polymarket shows a 53.2% probability of a Trump victory, a 7-percentage-point lead over Harris (46.2%). However, this contrasts with a recent New York Times/Siena College poll showing Harris ahead nationally by four points.
The analysts attribute a potential positive impact from a Trump presidency to macroeconomic factors such as low interest rates, persistent US fiscal deficits, and high debt levels. They anticipate Bitcoin's price to reflect changing election odds, with higher probabilities of a Trump win correlating to higher Bitcoin prices. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH/USD) and Solana (SOL/USD) are expected to experience significant price fluctuations only after the election outcome and subsequent regulatory appointments are finalized.
It's important to note that this is not the only prediction in the market. Last month, Standard Chartered predicted Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by the end of 2024 under a Trump presidency and $75,000 under a Harris presidency. Trump's openly pro-crypto stance, including accepting cryptocurrency donations and advocating for the US to become a "Bitcoin mining powerhouse," contrasts with Harris's more recent and broader comments on the industry, emphasizing both its encouragement and consumer protection.
Despite these predictions, the analysts caution against overreliance on any single forecast. The inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the varying methodologies and market sentiment behind different predictions necessitate a cautious approach. Investors are advised to consider multiple perspectives before making any investment decisions.
