Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Asset Research, reiterated his long-term forecast that Bitcoin will break through the $200,000 mark by the end of 2025. He believes that despite facing short-term uncertainties related to tariffs left over from the Trump administration and the risk of economic recession, these factors actually strengthen his bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Kendrick's analysis points out that the recent decline in Bitcoin's price is approaching the $69,000 to $76,500 range seen after the November 6, 2024 election. He compared Bitcoin's 30-day implied annualized volatility (currently at 55%) with the US "Magnificent Seven" (big tech stocks) and found that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's decline since President Trump took office is in line with these seven tech stocks.
He stated, "I would say that, after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin's trading is indeed firmly within this group of seven tech stocks plus Bitcoin." This suggests that Bitcoin's recent weakness reflects the weakness of overall risk assets, rather than a problem specific to Bitcoin. Among them, Tesla has fallen the most, while Meta and Apple have performed relatively well, and the trends of other stocks are similar to Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Rise Due to Economic Uncertainty
Kendrick believes that there are two potential catalysts for market recovery: clarification of tariff issues (low probability) or accelerated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (probability of a rate cut at the May meeting rising from 50% to 75%, higher probability). He warned that if Bitcoin falls below the support level of $76,500 (November 6 high), it could quickly drop to $69,000. However, Kendrick emphasized that his long-term forecast remains unshaken, and he believes that economic uncertainty increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, which in turn strengthens his long-term expectation that Bitcoin will reach $200,000.
Rock Zhang, founder and CEO of Network3 (an AI Layer2 platform), added context regarding the macroeconomic environment. He pointed out that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates early, and it is associated with recession indicators such as rising unemployment or slowing consumer spending, it could trigger concerns about a stock market downturn. He believes that the Fed's actions will depend on whether the rate cut is seen as a proactive measure or a response to recession indicators, which will affect market dynamics, and this may benefit Bitcoin in the long run.
Therefore, despite increased short-term volatility, Standard Chartered maintains its optimistic forecast for Bitcoin, believing that it will overcome short-term risks and ultimately reach its target price of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
